Layer 1 - Onshore base
2.72 MMbpd
Current production - FY2025/26
Greater Burgan + North + South + West Kuwait fields. 751 new wells drilled. 2nd year meeting annual target. Gap to 4 MMbpd: 1.28 MMbpd.
Layer 3 - Gas constraint (active)
West Kuwait
Acid-gas processing - FY2025/26
KOC study identified acid-gas processing capacity gaps constraining crude production. 6 field experiments across West Kuwait Ops + GC-32. Same mechanism as Khafji FY2024/25.
Offshore frontier (Seef project)
4.2 BnBOE
Nokhatha + Julaia + Jazza combined
Nokhatha (3.2 BnBOE, Jul 2024) + Julaia (950 MMboe, Jan 2025) + Jazza gas/condensate (FY2025/26). Each discovery adds gas handling, marine, processing requirements. Constraint migration begins at discovery.
Layer 4 - Export exposure
Zero bypass
All terminals - same Hormuz route
Mina Al-Ahmadi + Shuaiba - both Gulf terminals. Saudi Arabia: East-West pipe ~5-7 MMbpd to Yanbu. UAE: ADCO pipe ~1.8 MMbpd to Fujairah. Kuwait: no equivalent bypass exists.