Interactive companion · Study / FEL · Illustrative scenario

What has to be true for every barrel on the curve to exist?

A production profile is not just a reservoir forecast. It is a time-phased commitment to the wells, facilities, utilities, capacity, shutdown windows, capital and execution required to convert reservoir potential into deliverable barrels.

Illustrative asset · 45,000 → 60,000 bopd · values from the accompanying article

Profile submitted

60,000 →

bopd reservoir case

46ksurface-constrained plateau

~42kexpected average production

−30%illustrative gap to target

6conversion steps

01 / PROFILE

One target. Eight physical tests.

The profile starts with reservoir potential, then gets filtered by the systems that have to carry the barrels.

reservoir / wells separation / water gas gathering / export power availability

Submitted case: 60 kbopd is supported by the reservoir model, but the surface system does not yet prove that rate is executable.

02 / CONSTRAINT MAP

The bottleneck is a moving target

Click any system. Then change water cut or availability to see the binding point move.

Current controls

Target plateau60 kbopd

Availability90%

Water cut82%

03 / CURVES

The curve is a stack of investment decisions

Each additional production increment requires specific capacity. Select a curve to expose the investment package behind it.

04 / SHOPPING CART

What are you actually buying?

The basket changes when the target, water cut or availability changes. A higher curve is not free - and some purchases only create value after another purchase arrives.

Dynamic scenario

$0M

illustrative incremental CAPEX required by the selected case

Target plateau60 kbopd

Availability90%

Water cut82%

Illustrative decline2.5%/yr

05 / SYNCHRONISATION

Does the profile survive year by year?

Oil is only one row. Water, gas, power, gathering, separation and export have to arrive before the production curve asks for them. A late system is not a schedule note - it is a discounted netback loss.

Y045 kbopd
base

Y1well batch
+ ramp

Y2water
expansion

Y3gas train
commission

Y4gathering /
export

Y5plateau
window

Y6turnaround
cycle

Base schedule: supporting systems arrive before the oil profile asks for capacity. The constraint is removed in sequence.

06 / STUDY MANAGER

Build the profile from conversion, not optimism

Six steps, in dependency order: baseline → constraint sequence → windows → priced curves → deferred line → sync & cost of delay. Click each for its review test, output and failure signal.

Conversion baseline

Actual uptime, deferred production and spare capacity by system.

Constraint sequence

Name the constraint at each horizon - and what replaces it.

Execution windows first

Turnarounds, tie-ins and interventions before any curve is drawn.

Priced curves

Base, +A, +A+B. Every increment carries a cost and a date.

Deferred as a line

Split by cause and owner - never hidden in uptime.

Sync + cost of delay

Year-by-year support, with a costed consequence for lateness.

Illustrative scenario only. Capacities calibrated to a typical 60 kbopd Middle East brownfield asset. Source assumptions documented in FDM methodology. This is a decision-logic demonstrator, not a field-specific model. Asset-specific calibration requires the FDM engineering backend.

Economics: Illustrative netback $/bbl (oil price $70 - $4 differential, 55% gov take, $8/bbl variable OPEX). Used for Cost of Delay and Shopping Cart payback. Not a valuation.