Context
An upstream portfolio in MENA with several major EPC packages (separation and water injection facilities) where bids came in significantly above approved estimates.
Role
Independent advisory input: analytical support on contracting strategy and scenario development.
Challenge
The cost estimate was approved years before tender. Market escalation, an outdated FEED and aggressive schedule and LD terms combined into a risk premium that contractors priced fully upfront under LSTK.
Action
- Decomposed the bid-to-estimate gap into controllable and non-controllable components.
- Quantified risk exposure per package.
- Built a scenario framework: renegotiation (schedule extension and LD reduction), selective BOOT restructuring for long-life assets, phased scope.
- Designed a pre-tender gate KPI set: Schedule Confidence Index, TCE Age Index, Interface Register Completeness.
Result
The analysis and scenario framework were shared as independent advisory input.
